Fallout's world, and our world come to that, has a pretty clear definition of what a 'settlement' is in terms of what the minimum size of one actually is. A settlement is 3 or more families that have joined together for mutual support, aid, defense and building a common area for their use. The reason and rationale for this is simple: to attract trade. In terms of game play the Fallout franchise reflects this up to Fallout 4.
A single person living alone (or a recent widow/widower) will only get a trade caravan to pass by if something in the way of a service is offered or there is a personal relationship with someone in the caravan. Even with that, large caravan organizations will tend not to drop by a single person's residence as it is not worth the time and effort. In general single individuals living alone tend to end up dead on a frequent basis and only if there are defenses (difficult local geography or living in a bunker) will that person survive for a long period of time. A number of environmental stories are seen by players who wander the wasteland, and the person living alone finally succumbing to the problems of the wasteland is not uncommon.
A family (husband, wife at least, though children are a part of this as well) that lives alone is not a settlement but a homestead. Homesteading is a time honored concept in the US and individuals staking a claim on a place (be it empty of individuals or having abandoned structures), and make a go of it, usually through farming of one sort or another. The single family can fare a bit better than the lone individual as duties can be divided amongst individuals and a better safeguarding performed to ensure their safety. The best places are usually off the beaten path, somewhat isolated by geography and yet offering terrain that can be farmed. Old residences, shacks, and the like tend to be the structures associated with the single family, so that a divided living space can be achieved. The single family may be able to situate itself on a trade route so that caravans have a better chance of stopping there, particularly if some supplies (water in particular) can be offered as a service. If that isn't the case then working with any other individuals or groups locally to offer goods or services will also allow for the single family to make a go of things. With that said the tale of homesteads where the family has succumbed to the wasteland can offer poignant stories (either through environmental circumstances or written accounts) that tell of what the exact problems were that finally drove them off or killed everyone. Single families have a tough time of it, and one suspects that infant mortality is rather high in the wasteland.
Two families can have a much better time of things, but are still not up to settlement status. Co-operative homesteading, being near each other and supporting each other can allow for a mutual defense that shares the load of watching over the area, and can even have night-time guard duty. As with single families location is important, and as there is a division of labor there is actual free time available to improve the circumstances of the two families, often to the point of trying to find a third family to settle on nearby land. Two family situations are metastable, which means they are relatively stable compared to a single family that can be wiped out by a random occurrence, say a Deathclaw wandering into their place, while two families stand a better chance of having such instances reconsider their value as prey and seek an easier target. Raiders, however, will not be that easily dissuaded as two families can prove to be an attractive target as they have more accumulated wealth than a single family. Caravans may show up on an infrequent basis, as well, if services or particular goods are offered by the families involved. Positioning of this cooperative arrangement on or near a trade route helps in this regard, though it will also bring unwanted attention with it.
At three families a proper term of 'settlement' comes into being. With three or more families, joint defense, helping each other out, and improving the land and buildings allows for a better and more defensible small community that is likely and almost certain to attract trade caravans. A settlement like Arefu, in Fallout 3, had suffered hard times and is falling from the three family concept and if it loses anyone then the locals worry that they will no longer be able to attract trade as they were driven off their land by a form of Raider. There is a numerical threshold for trade and being right on the margins and having to move to a much more defensible location means losing land to grow crops, tend cattle and otherwise have goods to offer to a caravan. Part of the unwanted attention that two families have grows larger with just 3 families, though they should be able to defend their farms and homesteads better than two families, a group of determined Raiders will start to pick off isolated individuals to try and make the entire group fall apart. Thus there is a minimum amount of shock that three families can take before the system becomes unstable, and that is a metastable condition that varies by number of families, absolute number of individuals, terrain, and trade.
Larger, more permanent establishments can be classified as trading posts, although they will have a grab bag of terms applied to them including town and city. Trading posts are vital in that multiple trade caravans will tend to stop at them thus ensuring there will be a long-term connection for supplies that cannot be found locally. With 3 or more families providing some food, local craftsmen may show up able to trade their wares for food and generate revenue by selling goods to not just locals but trade caravans, as well. With enough individuals a shopkeeping situation can start up, with one individual who knows how to broker deals in put in charge. With actual liquid funds available the entire settlement can be reinforced, long-term help hired, and defenses erected that deter larger groups and keeps the worst of the wasteland abominations at bay. There are lots of places like this in the Fallout franchise: Megaton, Diamond City, Goodsprings, and the like are just such places. A town like Primm in Fallout: New Vegas can be overwhelmed by escaped convicts that force everyone to shelter in a single building as the firepower of all those in the town can be concentrated, but that requires explosives, and being willing to kill off people wantonly to take over the rest of the town. University Point was wiped out by the Institute in Fallout 4 and that demonstrates a ruthless attack for the information held by an individual in the trading post that saw no value on human life at all.
Up to and even including Fallout 4, the idea of what a settlement is has a well formed basis and established lore that connects to real world realities. Any nation that has undergone the transition from wilderness to pioneers to homesteaders and then small towns showing up will have this as part of the cultural background, even if it is centuries or more old. This is how human society operates and it is family oriented.
Non-family settlements do show up in the Fallout franchise. The ghoul population of the Underworld, in FO3, has a group of ghouls that don't require a normal diet able to band together in a relatively isolated location where, even though there is an active conflict going on above ground, the two combatants see no real reason to go after the ghouls. Without a high ground or other point of tactical value, the ghouls can post a minimal surface guard and the rest of the dwellers can live in relative safety. Anyone adventurous enough to actually find them will also find individuals tending to shops, mostly catering to ghouls but welcoming of a friendly smooth skin there for trade and/or barter. In FO4 the 'town' of Covenant does some trade but only with those that pass their test to ensure that they are not synths. The place is a virtual fortress built up with high stone walls, turrets and double doors that can't easily be breached from the outside. Neither of these are family based, do not feature children and generally have particular and purely local reasons for their establishment. They are singular establishments created due to circumstances particular to that group, and not easily replicated. Underworld is a mutual support group, while Covenant is run by a group behind the scenes that enforces order and thought amongst the people there.
Now that the basics of settlements are understood, it is time to examine the 'settlement' system of FO4. The game mechanic for FO4 to start a player run 'settlement' features putting up a settlement beacon tower, powering it up, and then making sure there is a job for the individual that shows up, as well as sufficient water, food and a bed for them. The player can then erect defenses, appoint individuals to guard duty, and even set up shops when enough individuals are present. Very simple.
What is missing? Families.
As we have seen in actual history and Fallout franchise, the basis for a stable settlement is based not on individuals, but on families. Families have an internal arrangement in which they band together for mutual love, support and defense, and that is a critical part of creating a culture and maintaining it over time. Without this there is no culture, no mutual support amongst close individuals, no concept of being able to expand that culture to include others who are like minded and no system of mutual cooperation and agreement amongst families. Those systems are not developed from top-down, but the bottom-up. Warlords come and go, and it is the rare one able to establish anything permanent in history. We do hear their stories, their legends, but when you look for their culture it is usually absent or in a small region that has changed drastically since the times of that warlord. In FO4 the PC is expected to micro-manage a 'settlement' because there is no mutual system or basis for mutual protection arriving on the scene. Families don't show up when beacons are erected. The top-down nature of creating 'settlements' like this is the very same as a warlord forcing individuals to work the land in a place and offering 'protection' to them. No matter how noble you are as a player, the moment you set up settlements, you are a warlord as you are not building on stable family units to create a society. You are dictating jobs to individuals, which is telling them what to do, even if it is just setting out crops to tend to, that is still an act of intention on the part of the PC.
There are mods that attempt to address this, to create a framework where individuals will take up jobs set out by the PC, and then build their own residence. Yet it is the PC who is dictating the number of plots for agriculture, commerce, industry and residences, plus has the ability to collect taxes. The NPC settlers do not come with a pre-existing skill set, nor do they seek to utilize those skills to the benefit of the community. The PC can recruit some high level traders, provide them with appropriate trading stalls and such, but that is still a top-down game mechanic. Even worse is going to an existing family, turning their farm into a 'settlement' and then having a bunch of strangers show up to start tending crops and, eventually, outnumber the family. Basically, when you do the mini-quest for the family to get use of the workbench, the PC is given total say on the living conditions, circumstances, protection and all else for that site: ownership is handed over lock, stock and barrel. For doing one small thing, the PC is given absolute control over the family and everything they own. They become subjects...worse they become serfs and the PC can freely re-assign the family members to break up the family to different 'settlements'. Isn't that just grand?
The reason why it is set up like this is simple: faster game play.
The downside? No role playing opportunities beyond the entrance mini-quest.
Role playing is sacrificed for faster game play, which is the opposite of what should be going on.
As bad as the system is, it is a very first step into adding in a factional transition element to role playing, but the ability to integrate it is not provided. Action, combat and not spending much time doing things with a settlement, beyond being its dictator or warlord, are the priorities for the settlement system. And as the PC can never permanently curb Raider gangs, the settlements will always be under threat from gangs that keep on showing up at the same places. For all the destruction the PC can do, actually nuking a large site so that it will never serve as a Raider refuge or base of operations is never one of them. With so many mini-nukes available, you would think that the demolition of these places would be an option.
Or, if that isn't an option, how about taking them over to create new 'settlements'? Not only do you get rid of the Raider gang that took it over, but you take it over, in turn, and make what used to be a difficult place to clear out one that is unapproachable and a virtual death trap for any set of Raiders that comes along. And if you added in 'settlers' who had skills to actually get some sites to work better, then old industrial or manufacturing sites just might start coming back on line, but then lack raw materials to get them up and running properly. The reason and rationale for then looking at quarry sites or other raw material sites that Raiders have, especially junk yards, then would come into play.
If settlements are integrated into role playing, then a plethora of options start to come to the forefront that goes outside the given factions. It would create the ability to lead a new faction that was able and willing to be separated from the others, defend themselves and create new trade routes to interact with other, more permanent communities. To keep in good stead as the leader of a faction means making sure that the needs of the entire group are addressed, that complaints are fielded and addressed, and that ideas of how to improve the situation of the faction comes from those who are in it. Settlers then move from serfs or subjects to stakeholders and citizens. That would allow a DIY situation that could take multiple pathways to accomplish a different set of goals than would be available in the static 'join a faction' game that we currently have as FO4.
The bright ideas from the DLCs then change this dynamic, as well, since the idea of Dr. Gray who created the robotic hydroponics farm of Graygarden could then be made into a real concept so that the production of food is slowly turned over to robots and the 'settlers' could be freed up to do more creative things or better tend to their own defense. The Automotron DLC makes that a very real thing as it is, and robot run farms start to become a supply powerhouse for food. The Contraptions DLC automates the production of goods, which would mean basic necessities could easily be addressed by automated production so that all of the people had access to the purchase of clothing, food, potable water...and purchase is the concept since just giving it away places little value on it. Serfs are given freebies through the benevolence of the leader; citizens earn their existence through their own work in exchange for goods garnered by the exercise of their liberty to gain income for that exchange.
Finally the Vault Tec DLC gives underground living a real possibility and might even offer a different way to address the Institute. Build an underground Vault that connects up to the Institute and start to let the people inside it know that their underground life will not be forever. Offer those under the thumb of the Institute an option to freely leave. Father might frown on that, of course, but the guy is only the acting Director of the place. Make Vault Tec's slogan of 'Better Living Underground' a REALITY that works, that offers jobs, trade, a means to make a living all done through the safety of the Vault and robots able to serve as a second line of defense behind turret systems. And if the Institute wants to trade for basic power because they aren't smart enough to create nor utilize the very systems that Vault Tec knew how to make, well, that makes them rather dependent upon that Vault or system of Vaults the PC makes. Vault 88 should be just a taste of new opportunities, and once a basic Vault is set up there then the discovery for new Vault sites should be a part of the game. How would the Institute react to surface dwellers working in and maintaining a good life underground without all the beauty of the Institute but with a better footing in power, water, food and materials? In a few months a well designed Vault would outshine the Iinstitute, itself.
And yet, for all that opportunity, the player should also be allowed to find a way to get in the Institute without ever starting a single settlement and without ever building a single piece of large scale equipment via the crafting system for settlements. The settlement system should offer opportunities and new ways to play, not be an overhead burden and frustration to the player. A means of finding good managers for these 'settlements' as they grow beyond a couple of families should lead to a self-administering system where the PC is required less and the control of how the place grows put in the hands of the people actually living there. Thus game play can be minimalist with a few, relatively dry choices to proceed as are in FO4 or it can be rich, diverse and see a new start in the wasteland that truly begins to create a new civilization once more. The early decisions you make might change the overall outlook of this new society and as you grow into the role by playing it, the changes you make to your decisions will also create friction within that society.
I applaud the settlement system, and don't see it just for what it is, but as one of the largest missed opportunities in the entire franchise. So little was done with it to create a true role playing game that included actual factional dynamics of resource management that it is a shame to just write it off because of the clunky way it was handled. This could have been a cornerstone, a building block, for the post-post-apocalypse in the Fallout franchise. That does seem the way it is heading, and yet, by not executing on FO4 as a role playing environment, the ideas presented seem out of place and not well crafted. How to change a straight up RPG to one with factional game elements that integrate well into the RPG is something Bethesda Game Studios could have attempted to pull off and be the mark of changing directions for all their RPGs where faction leadership is featured. To run a faction is not a title, but a job taken on voluntarily as it entails much overhead and yet can be extremely rewarding. Not just an adventure, but a job with adventure, with very rich role playing opportunities included. Heck, other faction leaders might actually come to respect and/or fear you over time. Wouldn't that be fun? Hard work should garner some rewards, after all.
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